The candidate, Edward Goldstein, is a Senior Research Scientist in the Department of Epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health. Having a PhD in mathematics, Ed has been involved in designing new methodological approaches for analyzing data on infectious disease spread, primarily for influenza, and implementation of relevant control measures. He wrote several articles during the 2009 H1N1pdm influenza outbreak aimed at delineating the impact of mitigation and control measures (antiviral drug usage and vaccination). The proposed research will take place at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard School of Public Health under the guidance of Prof. Marc Lipsitch, Center Director, and through collaboration with several investigators, both at the Harvard School of Public Health, elsewhere in the US, and abroad. Specific proposed research projects are 1. Estimation of the mortality and hospitalization burden associated with influenza. Quantification of the risks carried by individuals with certain underlying conditions (chronic lower respiratory disease, diabetes, renal disease, Alzheimer's disease, cancer, chronic liver disease) for severe outcomes associated with influenza. Estimation of the impact of related epidemiological phenomena (e.g. pneumococcal conjugate vaccine) on mortality and hospitalizations. 2. Prioritization for vaccine allocation in an influenz epidemic aimed at minimizing the mortality burden (an ongoing collaboration with Dr. J. Wallinga of RIVM, the Netherlands) 3. Assessing the potential scope of emerging influenza seasons and the utility of implementing various control measures, such as the usage of antiviral drugs, using surveillance data. 4. Estimation of influenza attack rates, both from past and emerging influenza epidemics, using surveillance data via statistical deconvolution methods (an ongoing collaboration with Dr. B. Cowling of the University of Hong Kong). 5. Assessment of the factors behind the rise in antimicrobial resistance in N. gonorrhea, an evolving public health problem, using both epidemiological and molecular typing methods (an ongoing collaboration with the Gonorrhea Isolate Surveillance Project team at the US Centers for Disease Control, and Drs. W. Hanage and Y. Grad of the Harvard School of Public Health) The above research themes fit into the candidate's objective of pursuing a career in infectious disease epidemiology, using modeling, statistical, and molecular epidemiological tools in his work. The candidate intends to seek tenure track academic positions during years 3-5 of the K01 award. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The aim of the proposed research is the development and implementation of methodological tools for the analysis of data on infectious disease dynamics and the assessment of the impact of relevant control measures. The new initiatives include development of statistical models to assess the mortality and hospitalization burden associated with influenza, introduction of analytic tools to derive data-driven criteria on prioritization for vaccine allocation during an epidemic, and utilization of genomic epidemiological techniques for studying antimicrobial resistance in N. gonorrhea. Some of the proposed efforts build on previous work on the usage of surveillance data for prediction and now-casting of influenza epidemics, extending the available methodology and applying it to new data.